基于聚类站点客流公共特征的轨道交通车站精细分类

已有城市轨道交通车站分类多基于定性分析，不能满足精细化设计和运营的需要。本文提出一种基于聚类站点公共特征的站点精细分类方法。首先，将来源于AFC(Automatic Fare Collection)的进站客流量数据处理为时间序列数据，并基于K-Means++算法对各个站点的客流量进行聚类；其次，建立客流量聚类结果与土地利用特征多维参数的拟合方程，计算获得居住密集型、工作就业型以及区域中心型等5种大类站点的客流量公共特征。在此基础上，充分考虑属于同一大类站点不同站点的细分特性，使用5类客流量公共特征比重组合精细描述具体站点类型。 实例结果表明，使用本文提出的精细分类方法计算得到的每个站的客流量拟合值与真实客流值间的平均绝对百分比误差控制在14%以内，说明该分类方法具有可行性。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

悉尼与中国城市公共交通绩效的比较研究

为完善悉尼市城市公共交通优先发展政策体系，实现悉尼市“可持续城市交通”愿景，借鉴中国“公交都市”示范项目的指导方针和指标体系，建立了一个基于公共交通绩效水平的评估指标体系，利用中国“公交都市”示范项目数据和悉尼市公共交通运营开放数据，分别计算了各城市的公共交通绩效水平。将悉尼市与中国“公交都市”示范项目试点城市的公共交通发展水平进行了比较研究。结果表明，悉尼市现有交通运输模式为主要依赖小汽车方式出行，虽然悉尼市在促进交通方式转变和新技术应用方面取得了一些进展，但其整体的公共交通服务水平远落后于中国“公交都市”示范项目试点城市。通过借鉴中国城市在“公交都市”示范项目实践中的经验，结合悉尼城市交通发展战略与规划，明确了悉尼市出台“从依赖小汽车出行转变为公共交通优先出行”导向政策的必要性，并提出了多项促进城市公共交通优先发展的政策建议，用以支持悉尼市实现“世界上最宜居城市之一”的发展目标。     

Young people and the private car: A love-hate relationship

Urban mobility is one of the main concerns of the public authorities in developed countries. In France, household travel surveys are conducted every ten years in major cities to gather weekday mobility data. They enable decision-makers to better understand travel patterns, their change and their determinants, in order to adapt transport infrastructures to the population′s needs. While the automobile has allowed the level of mobility to increase since 1950, an unexpected finding has emerged from recent surveys in most developed countries, namely that there has been a marked decline in car use. Analyses show that this trend is mainly because young adults (18–34 years old) are less likely to acquire a driver′s license. This paper tries to better understand the decrease in the rate of driver′s license holding among young adults in the Lyon conurbation and to quantify the impact of the main explanatory factors in a temporal perspective. It also aims to analyze the consequences of this trend on private car use as a driver for daily trips. It quantifies the influence of economic, socio-demographic and spatial factors on driver ′ s license holding and car use by considering the responses to the last three household travels surveys conducted in the Lyon conurbation area (1995, 2006 and 2015). The temporal dimension allows us to highlight a change in the relationship between young adults and the private car in the French context.     

船舶外场涂装无组织排放现状与法规分析

涂装作为造修船主要支柱环节,在人员健康、环境等的要求下,面临绿色化发展的转型升级的需求。基于船舶外场涂装作业大气污染治理的紧迫性,文章梳理了船舶涂装的现状,进而归纳及对比了国内外大气污染无组织排放的环保标准/法规,提出了船舶绿色涂装的发展建议。旨在为船舶企业提供涂装排放限值及要求相关的参考依据,降低对环境的危害,促进船舶行业的可持续发展。     

城市道路交通承载力研究综述

多年来，广泛的应用场景和领域使交通承载力的基础理论和量化研究方法等成为学术界的热点研究问题。作为城市交通可持续发展的重要指标，交通承载力向上与城市交通规划，向下与机动车需求管理融合，可以得到多个延伸的科研选题。在特定的时空网络中，一定的资源和环境约束条件下，城市道路交通承载力就是道路网络或基础设施现有或未来的承载状态，即交通资源达到最优配置、交通环境稳定时，道路交通设施单元或系统的承载能力或阈值。本文通过系统梳理城市道路交通承载力的国内外研究现状，从基础理论、量化研究方法和实践应用这3方面提出存在问题和发展建议。现有城市道路交通承载力研究存在理论体系不完善，评价量化方法有效性难以保证，评价指标选取缺少标准化，复杂系统承载力缺乏综合的内外部耦合协调分析，以及应用技术方法落后等问题。首先，未来可以建立较完善的交通承载力理论体系；其次，标准化评价指标，建立有效评价模型和耦合协调模型，研究交通系统内外部的耦合协调机制，提出协同优化策略；最后，改进应用技术方法，拓展自身及交叉领域应用。为城市道路交通承载力研究提供理论保障，为促进我国交通可持续文明发展建设进程提供有力支撑。     

Time use in travel surveys and time use surveys – Two sides of the same coin?

An in-depth understanding of travel behaviour determinants, including the relationship to non-travel activities, is the foundation for modelling and policy making. National Travel Surveys (NTS) and time use surveys (TUS) are two major data sources for travel behaviour and activity participation. The aim of this paper is to systematically compare both survey types regarding travel activities and non-travel activities. The analyses are based on the German National Travel Survey and the German National Time Use Survey from 2002.The number of trips and daily travel time for mobile respondents were computed as the main travel estimates. The number of trips per person is higher in the German TUS when changes in location without a trip are included. Location changes without a trip are consecutive non-trip activities with different locations but without a trip in-between. The daily travel time is consistently higher in the German TUS. The main reason for this difference is the 10-min interval used. Differences in travel estimates between the German TUS and NTS result from several interaction effects. Activity time in NTS is comparable with TUS for subsistence activities.Our analyses confirm that both survey types have advantages and disadvantages. TUS provide reliable travel estimates. The number of trips even seems preferable to NTS if missed trips are properly identified and considered. Daily travel times are somewhat exaggerated due to the 10-min interval. The fixed time interval is the most important limitation of TUS data. The result is that trip times in TUS do not represent actual trip times very well and should be treated with caution.We can use NTS activity data for subsistence activities between the first trip and the last trip. This can potentially benefit activity-based approaches since most activities before the first trip and after the last trip are typical home-based activities which are rarely substituted by out-of-home activities.     

A multiobjective land development optimization model: the case of New Castle County,Delaware

This paper develops a multiobjective optimization model to consider transportation impacts of the future development of land. The output of the model is the best location and type of land use that has minimal negative transportation effects and uses the maximum available public transportation infrastructure. It provides tools for both planners and transportation engineers and enables them to consider different scenarios of possible policies and land development. Since multiple objectives and their nonlinear structures are considered, the model is solved using mixed integer nonlinear programming. The final results are shown in both tabular and graphical format. The effectiveness of the model is applied to the northern part of New Castle County, Delaware. The results show that the model successfully finds the best locations for both residential and commercial land uses in order to meet several criteria discussed in the paper.     

Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

The relationship between land use and automobile travel utility: A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes approach

The relationship between land use and the utility of automobile travel is examined by refining the utility concept, particularly by combining the microeconomic utility theory, which is concerned with the disutility of travel, and the perspective on the positive utility. A conceptual model is accordingly developed and then adjusted considering different purposes of travel. The purpose-specific models are tested through a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes approach in Seoul, Korea, using datasets from a sample survey and geographic information systems. The major finding is that land use affects the utility mainly by changing synergy and affective utility rather than instrumental utility, which encompasses disutility variables. Among land use variables, the utility is found to be the most sensitive to the number of transit facilities for commuting and shopping travel and land use balance for leisure travel.